Malcolm Turnbull (Wentworth, Liberal Party, Minister for the Environment and Water Resources) Share this | Hansard source

The rule of thumb with sea level rises, and this is very much a general rule of thumb—it is based on Dutch work; they know quite a bit about sea level rises, as you can imagine, Mr Speaker—is that sandy beaches can retreat 50 or even 100 times as much as the sea level rise due to erosion. So if the sea level rises as estimated in the fourth assessment report, the degree of erosion on sandy beaches in Australia—absent any other engineering action: groynes, artificial reefs or anything like that—could be somewhere between nine and 50 metres. That plainly has consequences for communities that are built on low-lying sandy soil. Obviously, portions of south-east Queensland and Cairns have been identified as being at risk.

The measures that will be deployed if or when those sea rises become apparent vary enormously from place to place. As the Leader of the Opposition would know from his very careful study of the fourth assessment report, the sea level rise is not even forecast in the fourth assessment report to be uniform around the world. In fact, there are some parts of the world where the sea level may actually fall. So it is a very variable proposition. And, of course, the land can change too. If you get more precipitation, you get more sediments being washed down, and that can offset or even exceed the rise in sea level.

That is the context in terms of Australia. Globally, of course, it is an enormous problem. It is particularly problematic in places like China, Egypt and Bangladesh, where there are large cities and populations that are built in river deltas on sediments which have a tendency to sink anyway. They will be particularly prejudiced, and the dangers are enormous. We are all familiar with New Orleans, which is a city that is largely below sea level. Jakarta, which has recently been flooded, is 40 per cent below sea level.

It is plainly a big issue globally but, in Australia, it is something that everybody, every level of government, is well aware of. The Australian government is well aware of this issue. We are working closely with the states and local government through our scientific agencies to make sure that we have the science and that we take the practical measures—not the panic, scare slogans—to deal with the consequences of a further rise in sea level. I repeat: in the last century, we experienced a 20 centimetre rise in sea level. Rises in sea level are not new. We have adapted to them in the past and we will adapt to them in the future.

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