John Howard (Bennelong, Liberal Party, Prime Minister) Share this | Hansard source

As usual the Leader of the Opposition is misrepresenting not only what I say but also what the Minister for Foreign Affairs says. Let me go to the Baker-Hamilton report. Let me read to the House an excerpt from the Baker-Hamilton report. On page 37 it states:

A premature American departure from Iraq would almost certainly produce greater sectarian violence and further deterioration of conditions, leading to a number of the adverse consequences outlined above. The near-term results would be a significant power vacuum, greater human suffering, regional destabilization, and a threat to the global economy. Al Qaeda would depict our withdrawal as a historic victory.

Let me repeat that:

Al Qaeda would depict our withdrawal as a historic victory. If we leave and Iraq descends into chaos, the long-range consequences could eventually require the United States to return.

Those words are very close to the words of the national security estimate, which no doubt the Leader of the Opposition has read, in which it said amongst other things:

If Coalition forces were withdrawn rapidly during the term of this Estimate, we judge that this almost certainly would lead to a significant increase in the scale and scope of sectarian conflict in Iraq, intensify Sunni resistance to the Iraqi Government, and have adverse consequences for national reconciliation.

It went on to say:

If such a rapid withdrawal were to take place, we judge that the ISF—

Iraqi Security Forces—

would be unlikely to survive as a non-sectarian national institution; neighboring countries—invited by Iraqi factions or unilaterally—might intervene openly in the conflict ...

and it goes on in similar vein. When challenged to state his own view as to the consequences of an American withdrawal by March 2008, the Leader of the Opposition has sought refuge in cherry picking Baker-Hamilton. That is what he has sought to do. The Leader of the Opposition has sought refuge in cherry picking Baker-Hamilton and he has ignored the conditionality of the proposition put in Baker-Hamilton. He has completely ignored the assessment that if there were a premature withdrawal in Iraq by the American forces there would be the consequences that have been outlined.

The most that the Leader of the Opposition would say this morning on AM when he was asked about the consequences of an American defeat or withdrawal in circumstances of defeat was: it would be bad. The sum total of the Leader of the Opposition’s assessment of the consequences of an American withdrawal in circumstances depicted as defeat is that it would be bad. That is the one word: it would be ‘bad’. I think it would be worse than that. It would represent a catastrophe for the West. It would have serious security implications for this country. A humiliated, weakened America after a withdrawal from Iraq depicted as a defeat would be bad news for the world and it would be bad news for the security of Australia.

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