Greg Hunt (Flinders, Liberal Party, Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister for Foreign Affairs) Share this | Hansard source

This matter of public importance debate at this time in this place is about the consequences of a withdrawal from Iraq. It is about the consequences if the West and the coalition forces were to withdraw unilaterally without securing peace and security on the ground. Do we allow the door to open again to ethnic cleansing, at best, and to genocide, selectively, at worst? That is what this debate is about right now, at this point in history. It is also about the willingness to make decisions for the long-term security of Australia.

So there are two great consequences risked by the actions which the alternative government of Australia seeks to pursue. Those consequences are very simple. Firstly, there would be a human nightmare and catastrophe if the West were to withdraw now. On the timetable proposed, if the West were to withdraw without first achieving conditions of security across Iraq, what we will see is very simple: a return to the strategic and humanitarian nightmare which was Iraq in the past. But whereas then it was in the hands of a single strongman, who was responsible for the atrocities in Halabja in 1988, what we would see now is a country divided and destroyed, with a humanitarian nightmare which would be a return to the past and which would far exceed by an order of magnitude anything we see today.

So, when the question is raised, as it should be, about the consequences of where we are now, I want to draw a distinction between the past, the present and the future. The story of the past is a very simple one. The story of the past under Saddam Hussein is of genocide of the Marsh Arabs in the south, of the Kurds in the north and at Halabja on 16 March 1988, when he used chemical weapons against his own people, when 8,000 souls were taken. But more broadly it is the story of when hundreds of thousands of souls were taken in a brutal, slave state and totalitarian regime. That is what was brought to an end on 20 March 2003. It has not been pretty since, but let us never idealise or ignore it. (Quorum formed) The end of Saddam Hussein was the end of a prolonged period of ethnic cleansing, genocide, a totalitarian regime and a slave state. We make no apologies for bringing about the end of those circumstances. What we have seen since is a difficult situation—let us make no mistake about that—but what would occur if the policy of the Leader of the Opposition were adopted is genocide, ethnic cleansing and a strategic nightmare. That is what we face. It is a policy that has not acknowledged in any way at any time the consequences of walking out of Iraq. There is a myth being perpetrated that in some way we can do this without cost, without consequence and without bringing about a human tragedy. I believe that most members of the opposition know this but avert their eyes.

They know that their policy will bring about a human nightmare. It is a nightmare that I witnessed for myself when I was working for the United Nations in Geneva in 1993 recording the failure and inaction on the human tragedy in Bosnia—when we were not there and failed to take real steps to prevent what was occurring. It is a nightmare which would occur again under the policy proposed by the alternative government of Australia, and it would be a human tragedy as well as a strategic disaster.

Let me deal specifically with the three great myths of the policy put forward by the people who want to be the government. First is that there would be no consequences to walking out of Iraq if the West were to do that. Second is this absurd distinction between failure in Iraq and failure in Afghanistan. Let me be clear: if we fail in Afghanistan, as they say, then that will have enormous consequences on the ground in human terms, strategically and in security terms for Australia, but if we fail in Iraq there will be precisely the same consequences and it will open up a Pandora’s box that we will have to deal with for succeeding generations. The third great myth they have is that Australian troops do not really matter and that what we are doing in Al Muthanna and Dhi Qar in southern Iraq is not really making a difference. But, if you take away one of the legs of a stable stool, the others will not be enough. We are a critical part in the security of Tallil, Al Muthanna and Dhi Qar. That is absolutely the case.

The first of these great myths is that there will be no consequence to a precipitate withdrawal and that the West can walk out and it will be okay. There are people of goodwill who have put the case for withdrawal, but I put the position that they are clearly and absolutely wrong. The reason why is simple. It is that, although there is an incredibly difficult situation in Iraq now, there have been many areas of progress—whether it is the five million people who now have access to fresh water, the changes in the period of available electricity or the fact that six out of 10 divisions of the Iraqi army have been returned to Iraqi control, that 328,000 troops have been trained and that 135,000 police have been trained.

Whilst there is difficulty, there is progress at the same time. But without support we will see the two forces of Saddam Hussein’s legatees and those who are linked with or are supporting al-Qaeda wreak havoc on that country. What is occurring now is difficult and tragic, but it is better than it was under Saddam Hussein. As yesterday’s Australian newspaper reported, 5,000 Iraqis who were interviewed said, on a basis of two to one, it is better now than under Saddam Hussein. That is not us; that is the Iraqi people themselves in one of the most exhaustive public opinion polls ever conducted in Iraq.

We see then that the consequences will be real and human. If we walk out then we will see Shiite versus Sunni and Shiite versus Kurd, and perhaps we will see a risk to the Marsh Arabs again. On all of these fronts, we will see ethnic cleansing and potentially a return to selective genocide. That is the great charge and the great responsibility which is before us today. The opposition are right to raise the notion of consequences, but they are real and human consequences. Most of them know that but they fail to address the simple question: what will be the human consequences if we—not just Australia but the West—walk out today? They want the West to go, and if the West goes there will be ethnic cleansing and potentially genocide.

The second great consequence is that what we saw under the Taliban in Afghanistan will occur in Iraq. Iraq will be a platform for a strategic nightmare where maybe not all but enough of the country will be a base for terrorist action and training throughout the Middle East and potentially for those people who would work in our own region of Australia. Those are fundamental, long-term strategic consequences. It will not even be the opposition who will have to deal with it; it will be succeeding generations that will have to clean up the nightmare if we re-open the door to a slave state, or to parts of it, and to a Taliban style platform for the work of al-Qaeda and others. There can be no graver responsibility that we have for the rest of the world. We have the fear and the risk in the future, whether it is in five, 10 or 20 years, of some form of dirty bomb. There would never be a better place for this sort of preparation and activity to occur.

The second great myth they have is that it is okay if Iraq falls over but if Afghanistan falls over that would be a real problem. It would be a real problem, but the same applies to both. In fact, there are three great theatres of activity: Iraq, Afghanistan and the broader Middle East. We need to prevent the work of al-Qaeda and others who would bring forth an Islamic caliphate. They have a vision of the world which is a perversion of Islam, which is a perversion of the religion to which the vast majority of people in that region adhere, and which serves the same purpose as it did for the Oklahoma bombers when they misused their religion by claiming that they were acting in their religion. That battle has to be fought right across the Middle East in hearts and minds, and through diplomacy as well. If we fail in any of these theatres then it will be a problem. It will be not just a problem but a nightmare that our children and others will have to deal with because we walked out at the most important time. This is a critical juncture in history and to walk away from any one of these platforms is to walk away from our responsibility. To do so because it might be politically convenient is pure, venal, political opportunism. There are people on the other side who are better than that, but unfortunately the goodwill of one or two individuals does not prevail over a policy which is an impossibility—and that is to walk out and fail and let these consequences occur.

This brings me to my last point, about the importance of Australian actions. I want to deal firstly with the misrepresentation of the Prime Minister’s response in question time today. The Prime Minister responded very clearly on his position and understanding of the US system, and to try to shoehorn his answer into the confected response that the opposition pretend is an abuse of their position and an abuse of the processes in this House. He was very clear on his position in talking about the United States.

But what about the Australians? My last point is that the Australians play a critical role. We are involved in development, diplomacy and security. If our 520 troops in the Overwatch Battle Group in Tallil are withdrawn, what we will see is the disappearance of the prime support in Al Muthanna and Dhi Qar province for the work of local Iraqis, who are now beginning to take control. They are a fundamental leg in the platform of stability. If you take them away at this point in time, it will have real consequences: it will open the door for increased instability. Their presence alone is an important security guarantee. So we underestimate their contribution at our peril and at the peril of southern Iraq. Ultimately, this debate at this moment in history is about the consequences of action or inaction. Inaction is Australia and the West failing to play their parts. If we withdraw, there will be a humanitarian nightmare and a security nightmare for future generations.

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