Kevin Rudd (Griffith, Australian Labor Party, Prime Minister) Share this | Hansard source

So on the whole question of where this fits—that is, Treasury’s projections for the two out-years of what is now the forward estimates—it is in fact more conservative than the projections by the then Treasury concerning recovery from the two earlier recessions, one in the 1980s and one in the 1990s.

There is also an important point to note and it does go to the question that the Leader of the Opposition raised specifically in reference to the IMF and to others who make projections and to the attitude of other commentators on these growth projections. I would draw the attention of the Leader of the Opposition to comments this morning by the Chief Economist of Commsec, Craig James, by the senior economist of Icap Australia, by UBS and by Westpac in its Australian federal budget report, all of which have described the federal Treasury’s forecast in the budget papers as being on the pessimistic or bearish side. That is what they have had to say.

Obviously there is going to be debate among forecasters on the question of methodology, but the government believes in the independent advice of the Treasury and I would say to those opposite that they should respect the independence and integrity of the Commonwealth Treasury. The importance of these forecasts goes to how we actually project ahead with growth.

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