Craig Emerson (Rankin, Australian Labor Party, Minister Assisting the Finance Minister on Deregulation) Share this | Hansard source

Are there any impediments! I thank the member for Fowler for her question. I can report on the retail sales figures that were released this morning. They indicate that the retail sales for the month of July actually fell by one per cent, which follows a contraction of 0.8 per cent in June. I can, though, put this in some perspective. Retail sales since November last year—that is, the pre-stimulus period—have in fact grown by 4.8 per cent. That sets us apart from the rest of the developed world because in the rest of the developed world retail sales have contracted in that period.

What it really means is that we need to take a reality check on the economic situation in this country. Yes, there are encouraging signs. Yes, there are positive signs in the consumer confidence figures that were released today. But we know how fragile consumer and business confidence is. We need to do everything that we possibly can to back in that consumer and business confidence and thereby prepare for the recovery. That is the view of just about every respected commentator in Australia and overseas. In fact, yesterday I cited no fewer than 13 examples of institutions and organisations overseas and here in Australia who say that a premature withdrawal of stimulus would be precipitant, reckless and irresponsible. Indeed, the International Monetary Fund said:

Premature exit from accommodative monetary and fiscal policies is a principal concern.

We have already heard the Treasurer refer to CommSec, who said, ‘We wouldn’t be advocating that the government or the Reserve Bank change their settings in any way at the moment.’ The Commonwealth Bank chief economist, Michael Blythe, said: ‘The Australian economy will continue to benefit from economic policy stimulus in 2009. We’re not there yet.’ An ANZ economist said, ‘Government policy actions continue to be a critical factor supporting the economy.’ They are just a few of the 13 organisations overseas and in Australia who say it would be reckless and irresponsible to withdraw stimulus.

But of course there are different views, and the different views have been articulated today straight off the script issued by the Leader of the Opposition’s office. The member for Fadden, the Gomer Pyle of Australian politics, stood up and said: ‘Gol-lee! Gol-lee, Sergeant! The rest of the Western world right now is lookin’ at how to wind back stimulus. Stimulus is all about puttin’ government money in where private sector money comes out.’

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