Joe Hockey (North Sydney, Liberal Party, Shadow Treasurer) Share this | Hansard source

Thank you. Given that the minister is such an enthusiastic supporter of his own stimulus packages, a chart on page 2-23 and 2-24 of the 2010-11 Budget Paper No. 1 purported to show a relationship between the size of fiscal stimulus and the extent to which economic growth exceeded expectations. It concluded:

Those countries that enacted large and timely fiscal stimulus packages, including … Australia, performed much better than expected. … The relationship … is highly statistically significant ….

The chart used data from just 11 of the G20 countries. However, in Senate estimates the Treasury admitted in a statement on 2 June 2010 that ‘an error was made’—‘We screwed up’ is perhaps a better way of describing it—in the original chart. There is no statistically significant relationship between fiscal stimulus and the extent to which economic growth exceeds expectations.

It also turns out there is no significant relationship when all OECD countries are included. Given this, will the minister now agree that new Treasury information shows there is no basis to the claim that the Rudd government’s fiscal stimulus played a significant role in the economic performance of Australia? Will the minister undertake to consult with the Treasurer and ask the Treasurer to refrain from making any further unjustified claims?

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