Andrew Robb (Goldstein, Liberal Party, Chairman of the Coalition Policy Development Committee) Share this | Hansard source

Terms of trade—thanks, Bill. You are really on the mark. He is very quick witted. We have 140-year highs. The trouble is that if those highs come off or even go back to normal levels—we do not have to have a collapse in commodity prices—we are looking at another $50 billion deficit going on and on and on. We could have a $250 billion net debt within three years if commodity prices come off because of a collapse in Europe or because China went back to six or seven per cent growth. That is still high growth and there is still demand for the product, but at much lower prices. Of course, in the Financial Review today the forecast for coking coal is for a decline by $100 a tonne through the calendar year 2012.

That is why we sought a sensitivity analysis. I was ridiculed by the Treasurer today—the prodigal son. He ridiculed me for any suggestion of a sensitivity analysis. If coking prices do fall by $100, we, the community and the business community would like to know what the implications are for the budget. That is good economic management. And yet we will see none of it. We will see a few forecasts, but we will see no sensitivity in case the prices of exports collapse or even fall. They do not have to collapse; they only have to go back to long-term levels.

What we see from this government is an attempt to create a budget surplus next year which is manufactured—a manufactured budget surplus. We will have fiscal gymnastics next week and we will have them all through the next six months and the six years that they are in power. (Time expired)

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