Kylea Tink (North Sydney, Independent) Share this | Hansard source

According to Sun Tzu, the art of the war teaches us to rely not on the likelihood of the enemy not coming but on our own readiness to receive him, not on the chance of him not attacking but rather on the fact we have made our position unassailable. This wisdom was offered over 2,500 years ago, yet it appears Australia is still grappling with the lesson. Rather, our defence strategy to date has been largely based on key assumption that our key ally, America, is the pre-eminent power in the Asia-Pacific region. Therefore, it is unlikely that Australia would face a military threat from a major power, because America would prevent that kind of threat from emerging and, if for some reason we were threatened, America would come to our defence. That may have been a fine assumption over the course of the last 80 years, but, with the shifting geopolitical environment, we must consider more seriously than ever before whether Australia can defend itself independently and, if so, how.

The motion moved by the member for Canning then is very timely. I agree with him. There are new threats and, I agree, we need to prioritise not just developing new capabilities but also building a strong values based narrative of service, duty and country. However, I would add to his argument that, for our approach to be most effective, we must also be willing to divest from strategies that no longer serve us or provide a less than optimal return.

There are just over 26 million people in Australia, and population growth has been stable at one per cent a year. My understanding is that the size of our current ADF has also remained relatively stable in recent times, with just over 58,500 defence personnel, including a much smaller number of frontline combat personnel currently in service. Nearly 22,000 reserve personnel are also enlisted, which means just 0.3 per cent of our community could be mobilised relatively quickly should we come under direct attack. This is a fraction of the size of the forces of neighbouring middle-power countries such as South Korea and Indonesia, with each dwarfing Australia's military capability, with nearly 600,000 and 340,000 troops respectively. China boasts the largest military in the world, with more than two million troops and a naval force that has more than tripled in size over the past two decades.

Looking at our circumstance, Greg Moriarty, the secretary of the Department of Defence noted in the 2021-22 Australian government Defence annual report that the ADF remains focused on continuing to build a diverse and inclusive culture our people. However, he did not specifically address the challenge of increasing its numbers. He did, though, reference the ADF's focus on achieving range and survivability. In the same report General Angus Campbell AO DSC General Chief of the Defence Force said, 'People are the most important component of military capability' and 'The success of the Australian Defence Force, like a nation, lies in the character of its people and the culture of our teams.' Again, he did not specifically address how we build a force that can defend our continent independently from a direct attack.

In a world where there is no imminent threat to our nation, how do we encourage every Australian to consider what role they can play in ensuring our long-term strategic independence without simply fear mongering? According to 2022 Lowy Institute poll, Australian's sense of safety has been up and down in recent years, with Russia's invasion of Ukraine and instability closer to home appearing to affect public opinion with just over half Australians reporting they felt 'safe' or 'very safe'. This is down from 70 per cent in 2021. Three in five Australians also reported they're concerned about a potential conflict in the Taiwan Strait, up from 36 per cent in 2017.

Australians also expressed high levels of concern about either non-traditional security threats, with two-thirds citing cyberattacks from other countries and a similar number citing climate change as posing critical threats. Yet, if enlistment numbers are anything to go by, the sense of increasing risk is not translating into action.

We do not have the compulsory military training of Scandinavian and some EU countries to ensure our ever-ready sizable force can be stood up quickly if required, nor do we have the patriotic fever that comes with America's military service. It's hard to see this changing. But, unless the Australian population is inspired to think and care about defence, we have little chance of meaningful change. This will require our government to develop and communicate clear priorities to both defence forces and our wider community, which sounds pretty straightforward but is likely to be anything but as the ADF is a large and complex bureaucracy with many factions competing for limited resources. We must accept we can't protect ourselves from every conceivable threat and instead clearly articulate where we are going to take the risk and why. Success is far from guaranteed, and we all have an important role to play.

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