Garth Hamilton (Groom, Liberal National Party) Share this | Hansard source

There's never been a more important topic for MPs of any persuasion to consider than how best we work to avoid recession in our economy. I was the age of the kids up in the gallery when the last recession went through in the early nineties. I remember that period of instability. It was fascinating as a child to watch the debates at the time. It's what brought me into politics—the idea that something as big as this could be influenced by politicians here on the floor. But, as favourable as the memory of coming here is, the memories of back home are very different. I watched my parents really struggle through those years, not understanding what it means to have economic pressures applied to the household budget. It's only in hindsight you realise just how difficult it was for parents going through those times. My father was a builder and concreter at the time, and business just dried up—simple as that. There just wasn't work there. The demand fell away, and no matter how good he was, no matter how productive he was, there just wasn't the ability for him to contribute and to bring money home. It was a formative experience of mine and one that shapes my political beliefs. I'm sure for many people of my age who stand here it is something we remember and we look back on. For me, it drives my beliefs on reward for effort, the need for small government and the reason small business deserves our fulsome support.

The experience I had is probably similar to what is playing out across the country now. Although we're not in a recession, we're in a per capita recession, and that's got to feel exactly the same for those families out there who are feeling the brunt of this. It feels exactly the same. A per capita recession is the exact same feeling that we felt. The economic output per person is going backwards. That experience is playing out despite the promises made going into the last election, I want to point out, by the now government of cheaper mortgages, cheaper electricity and cheaper groceries. This experience is playing out across the economy.

What's really difficult is thinking now: what's the difference? What is keeping us from that full-on recession? What is the magic thing that is stopping that word from being applied? It's immigration. That's it. It's immigration. We are relying upon a doubling of the immigration figures. Under the Morrison government, immigration was capped at 160,000 per year. We've got confirmation from the minister here we'll have 1.5 million new Australians joining us over the next five years, 300,000 a year—a near doubling—with expectations of that being more.

To point out how tenuous a solution this is—this is the solution we have at the moment to keep us out of a recession—this is in the middle of the worst housing crisis on record, with record low supply. The heads of all the major four banks sat in front of the Economics Committee and agreed we have never had a worse situation when it comes to housing supply. In the middle of a per capita recession, what we're going to do is to flood the market with more demand. This is the incredibly unsustainable solution. Being a reasonable member, I fully acknowledge the need for immigration, proper immigration. We have benefited from it in Toowoomba. But it cannot be how we solve this problem.

When you look at this problem in the context of a record drop in productivity, what is the broader solution we're seeing? We are seeing IR policies come forward. Even according to the Productivity Commission, when you take people off individual agreements and put them onto enterprise-level agreements, you reduce productivity. We've got record low productivity and then we've got IR legislation coming through that will drop that down further. In terms of investment to help us drive out of this, we've seen price caps in the energy sector that have driven away in droves further investment in our nation. What happens if we fail? What if we can't keep ourselves out of this? I keep going back to that generation of 25- to 29-year-olds right now who cannot save. Their money is going on rent, on groceries and on electricity. They cannot save. They cannot get onto the property ladder. Demand is about to spike like it has never done so before, and they are waving goodbye to any opportunity they have of getting on the property ladder. It's an absolute shame.

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