Andrew Robb (Goldstein, Liberal Party, Chairman of the Coalition Policy Development Committee) Share this | Link to this | Hansard source

You are doing well, Mr Speaker. My question is to the Treasurer. I refer the Treasurer to the fact that prices for coal and iron ore have dropped by up to 20 per cent since September this year. Treasurer, given that the estimates of revenue from the mining tax are dependent on high prices for these commodities, will the mini budget crisis update contain a sensitivity analysis to show the budget's vulnerability to falling commodity prices?

Wayne Swan (Lilley, Australian Labor Party, Treasurer) Share this | Link to this | Hansard source

There is only one crisis going on around here, and it is on the opposition front bench. They have a $70 billion crater in their budget bottom line. The shadow Treasurer went on television and confirmed it. The shadow finance minister has confirmed it publicly. They have a $70 billion crater and they want to talk about fiscal discipline! Well, they have come to the right place, because we are absolutely determined to keep in place the fiscal discipline that has been a hallmark of our government.

What we need at a time of global uncertainty is consistency and very sound economic policy. We are determined to keep Australians in jobs. What we did during the global financial crisis was put jobs and good budget management right to the forefront of our economic policy. We kept this country out of recession, and we were opposed by them every step of the way. The consequence of that has been the creation of 750,000 jobs. Our GDP is six per cent bigger than it was prior to the global financial crisis because we handled that global uncertainty with good budget policy and sound economic management. What we are seeing in the global economy—

Andrew Robb (Goldstein, Liberal Party, Chairman of the Coalition Policy Development Committee) Share this | Link to this | Hansard source

Mr Speaker, I rise on a point of order on relevance. The Treasurer has not mentioned one word in answer to the question that I put to him about what sensitivity analysis, if any—other than the Mickey Mouse one he gave at the last budget—you will give, given that coal is to drop—

Harry Jenkins (Speaker) Share this | Link to this | Hansard source

Order! The member for Goldstein will now resume his seat. Whilst the argument in his point of order can be ignored, the argument in his question, having been allowed, cannot be ignored, and the Treasurer used the first part of his response to deal with that.

But I remind the member for Goldstein, as I would remind, yet again, the Treasurer, that the standing order now is 'direct relevance'. It is not 'direct answer'. I cannot dictate how in fact the response will be put together. The Treasurer is aware of his responsibilities under the standing order, and I advise him to relate his material to the question, but in doing so, there is nothing so far that gives me great concern. I remind the Treasurer of the need to be directly relevant.

Wayne Swan (Lilley, Australian Labor Party, Treasurer) Share this | Link to this | Hansard source

We will be producing by the end of the year our Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook. We will be doing it in the normal way but we will be doing it in very difficult global economic conditions.

Opposition members interjecting—

They are just demonstrating how they are incapable of understanding the international or national economies, Mr Speaker. The fact is that global growth has been revised down, and you have seen that again today with statements from the head of the IMF. That does have an impact on growth in Australia. You saw that through the Reserve Bank statement on monetary policy a couple of weeks ago when they revised down growth from four to 3¼ per cent. As a consequence, we are preparing our materials and forecasts for the Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook and, given the uncertainty, the hit to confidence and all of the impacts of the global financial crisis, that will have an impact on revenues in our Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook, and we will account for that in the normal way.

Yes, we will be having budget savings and, if those people opposite claim that they are responsible, they will be supporting them in this House. We are absolutely committed to bringing the budget back to surplus in 2012-13, because that is the right thing to do, sending a clear and consistent message about fiscal policy in an uncertain international environment and, given the fact that growth in this country is still around trend and given that jobs are our priority, we will present a very responsible document with all of the usual analysis.

Mr Robb interjecting—

Harry Jenkins (Speaker) Share this | Link to this | Hansard source

Order, Member for Goldstein!

Wayne Swan (Lilley, Australian Labor Party, Treasurer) Share this | Link to this | Hansard source

But implicit in the shadow finance minister's question was yet again another rubbishing of professional Treasury officials. Every time things do not go their way in the debate, what do they do? They go out and can the bureaucracy, the very people who provided professional advice to them, advice which they accepted in office for almost a dozen years. We will never do that. We will behave responsibly. You can go back to your wrecking style in this House. I will tell you what, it is not appreciated by the Australian people. Just saying no is not a policy. The Leader of the Opposition is all opposition and no leadership. There is no substance, just all bluff and bluster.