Bill Shorten (Maribyrnong, Australian Labor Party, Leader of the Opposition) Share this | Link to this | Hansard source

According to the Prime Minister, NATSEM is Australia's most authoritative modelling organisation. NATSEM's modelling shows that nine out of 10 of Australia's highest income families will be better off because of the government's budget, but nine out of 10 of Australia's lowest income families will be worse off. In light of this, how can the Prime Minister possibly claim that his budget is fair?

Tony Abbott (Warringah, Liberal Party, Prime Minister) Share this | Link to this | Hansard source

I am a little surprised that the Leader of the Opposition is still citing this particular modelling. While NATSEM is indeed the most authoritative modeller in the country, NATSEM has indeed been used and abused by the Labor Party on this occasion. What the Leader of the Opposition failed to tell us was that NATSEM said: 'The NATSEM analysis does not include any potential second-round effects such as behavioural changes in the policy measures.' The whole point of the policy measures is to encourage people to move from welfare to work. This government understands, in a way that members opposite appeared to have forgotten, that the best form of welfare is work.

Not only does the NATSEM modelling fail to take second-round changes into effect; it is not even modelling of the 2015 budget. So, yet again, it is being completely and comprehensively misrepresented by members opposite. Worst of all, the analysis that the Leader of the Opposition continues to cite includes measures—savings, reductions et cetera—that the Labor Party actually supports and, in some cases, has voted for in this parliament. So this is simply a fraudulent misrepresentation of modelling by the Leader of the Opposition.

This is a budget that is measured, responsible and fair. The best thing we can do for the families of Australia is to build a strong and prosperous economy, and the best way we can do that is to boost small business. If the Leader of the Opposition is as concerned as he claims to be, and as I like to believe he mostly is, with the welfare of Australian families the best thing he can do this week is to expedite the budget measures on small business through the parliament. If he is fair dinkum about helping families, if he is fair dinkum about helping family business, he will expedite the budget measures through the parliament.