Kevin Andrews (Menzies, Liberal Party) Share this | Link to this | Hansard source

An important subject I want to talk about tonight is the stability and security of the broad Asia-Pacific region. When Australia's Defence White Paper was being crafted in 2015 it noted that the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, the DPRK, would continue to be a major source of regional insecurity and instability. The white paper noted:

North Korea's threatening behaviour includes its nuclear weapons program, its ballistic missile tests and its proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and their delivery systems. North Korea's behaviour especially threatens its immediate neighbours, particularly South Korea and Japan.

That assessment from 2015-16 has been proven by the events since. The recent DPRK missile launches have ratcheted up already simmering tensions on the Korean peninsula and in the surrounding region. Defence commentators quickly observed that the regime would soon have the ability to launch a ballistic missile against the United States. Indeed, one commentator noted that Australia itself could be a target. But the more likely targets are closer to Pyongyang—South Korea and Japan.

With the impeachment of President Park, South Korea is experiencing the considerable political turmoil of an election campaign without a national leader. Interestingly, the candidate most likely to be elected as the new President of South Korea, Moon Jae-In, fled from the north and still has extended family there.

The election of a president where there may be less assertion towards the north could in fact embolden the hand of Pyongyang. Also closer to North Korea is Iwakuni and Sasebo in Japan, where American forces are based, including their stealth fighters. North Korea's actions compounded existing tensions in the region, especially in the China Sea. Japan, which has deployed its largest naval ship to the South China Sea, is wary of both China and North Korea. Indeed, tensions between the two nations have simmered in the East China Sea for years. They are now spreading to the South China Sea, where pressures already exist over China's militarisation of disputed reefs and its refusal to abide by international tribunal rulings.

Indeed the Japanese government has been quietly moving military personnel to the south-west of the country, a sign that they anticipate the tensions in the region will escalate. Indeed, it was reported in the Japanese media that the US had deployed 'Gray Eagle' drones armed with air-to-ground missiles to South Korea. This follows reports that B1 and B52 bombers had been moved to the country. While this is part of the Foal Eagle exercise, it ratchets up pressure in the region. If Kim Jong-un was to draw China into a regional conflict with South Korea or Japan, the US would have little option but to respond. The US Secretary of State, Rex Tillerson, has already voiced a tougher approach to China than the previous administration. This would have immediate ramifications for Australia and other allies.

China is the key to the resolution of the issue. It has considerable influence over the rogue North Korean state. It can influence behaviour, better behaviour, through economic sanctions and indeed other means. Indeed, we had as a special guest of this parliament this week Senator John McCain, who stressed that Australia and the US and allies must take a steadfast approach in relation to these tensions and pressures that we may well face in coming months and years. Historically we have known that conflict in the region has tended to occur quickly and unexpectedly, so Australia needs to be ready, politically and strategically, for the unexpected. Tensions in the region are likely to compound in the coming weeks and months, and we need to be prepared for whatever event may occur in the spirit of time.