Simon Birmingham (SA, Liberal Party, Shadow Parliamentary Secretary for the Murray Darling Basin) Share this | Hansard source

I am presenting a contrast, Madam Acting Deputy President, between the two committee reports. Indeed, you are correct to say that Senator Cormann's committee did take evidence in a wider range of places over a longer period of time. Senator Bushby was part of that inquiry. Importantly, the more detailed inquiry—the inquiry that actually took evidence from a range of individuals—found, quite sensibly, some serious concerns about the carbon tax. It did not have to make up the evidence. It actually had the time to scrutinise the evidence that was available—the evidence of the Treasury modelling.

We have concerns about the modelling. We believe that it is based on overly optimistic assumptions and we believe those overly optimistic assumptions probably understate the impact of the carbon tax. We should also note that some of the assumptions are things like there will be continued full employment, so its findings on the matter of employment are rather pointless in the extreme. But, all of that aside, it is at least the best we have got of any analysis of the economic impact of the carbon. It finds in its projections that over the forward estimates and beyond that right through to 2050 income will be lower than it would otherwise be. In fact, if you look at the Treasury modelling as to how much lower and the trend of that reducing income, you see that it continues to reduce. It keeps reducing and the trend line is still pointing down in 2050. The difference in income for Australians as a result of the carbon tax is shown by the trend line still pointing down in 2050. Beyond 2050, which is as far as the modelling goes, it will keep going down and down and we will see a bigger gulf.

The report of the Senate Select Committee on the Scrutiny of New Taxes chaired by Senator Cormann found very clearly that in the period to 2050 the cost—the difference in lost income for Australia—tallied up to $1 trillion. That is not a figure that is used very often in Australian politics or in Australian economic discussion. We may have a $1 trillion economy, but thankfully, unlike our close allies in the US, even this government has not managed to get our deficit to the stage where we have to start talking about trillions of dollars.