Anne Urquhart (Tasmania, Australian Labor Party) Share this | Hansard source

In Tasmania, the state that I represent, the government commissioned its own modelling on the impact of COVID-19 once the state opens up. As a result of that, the government—and I might add that it's a Liberal government—has made the decision not to fully open up the state until 90 per cent of the eligible population has been vaccinated. It's quite a different plan from the rest of the country and quite a divergence from the national plan. This Tasmania-specific modelling is due to be finalised this week. That really makes me wonder what more the Tasmania Premier learnt at national cabinet that made him make this decision. He did reveal the Doherty modelling figures on likely coronavirus deaths if our island reopened at an 80 per cent vaccination rate. Over the first six months, it would result in 14,900 cases, up to 590 hospital admissions, 97 intensive care admissions and almost 100 deaths. He also made it clear that it was not an acceptable risk to take.

Our doctors, nurses and paramedics are telling us loud and clear that moving to the next stage of the national cabinet plan will put huge pressure on hospitals around the country as lockdowns are lifted in New South Wales, Victoria and the ACT and borders are opened in COVID-free states like Tasmania. There is revised modelling on the capacity of health systems and hospitals to cope with an influx of COVID-19 hospitalisations as Australia reopens. It models how many cases, hospitalisations and deaths can be expected, and the Morrison government is refusing to release it publicly. Modelling for the whole country that outlines the impacts on our hospitals exists. We paid for it. Our taxes paid for it. But the Prime Minister is keeping those details secret. We have a right to know. Our hardworking healthcare workers have a right to know. Our paramedics and nurses, those working shift after shift and seemingly endless hours of overtime, have a right to know. The Australian people have a right to know.

In the last few months we've seen our hospitals, particularly in Sydney and Melbourne, at breaking point. In Tasmania, even without COVID-19, our hospitals are at breaking point almost every single day. That's right. That's when the state is COVID free. We are starting to see the lag from the last 18 months because people weren't seeking treatment when they should have and, as COVID does come into Tasmania, that pressure on our health system will increase.

It is not acceptable for Mr Morrison to keep this modelling a secret and it is not acceptable for Mr Morrison simply to pretend that this is all the states' responsibility. He's done that far too often throughout this pandemic—with the vaccine rollout and with quarantine, and we could go beyond that with everything else. The culture of avoidance and secrecy that this Liberal government has cultivated has reached extraordinary heights, to the point where we're here today demanding on behalf of the people that we represent to be allowed to see the revised modelling we have paid for that tells us how or if our hospitals will cope.

I have absolute faith in the dedicated health professionals in Tasmania. Daily, they pull out all the stops. They work double shifts and more, tending to Tasmanians with their care and expertise. But, even on a good day, our hospital system is crying out for more staff and more resources. We've seen a 30 per cent increase in patients on the elective surgery waiting list and ambulance ramping at unprecedented levels. Years of underfunding in bed blocks has seen it lurch from crisis to crisis. That has left us in a position where the Premier is not prepared to commit to easing border restrictions until we are 90 per cent vaccinated. That's how worried he is about the pressure that will be brought to bear on our health system.

We all deserve to know what that pressure will look like. Then we deserve a Prime Minister who will sit down and maturely and constructively work with the state and territory governments to make sure there's a plan to keep our hospitals safe and strong. What a real leader, a real Prime Minister who understands his role, would do is constructively talk to the states and territories about what they need to cope, not play spiteful politics and play favourites. What a real leader would do is take some responsibility. What a real leader would do is not run and hide. That is what this Prime Minister is doing: running and hiding from crisis to crisis.