Amanda Stoker (Queensland, Liberal Party, Assistant Minister to the Attorney-General) Share this | Hansard source

The government hasn't done modelling on the RCEP. Economic modelling of trade agreements is only one tool, though, in the box of available tools to assess their economic benefits. Statistical and methodological limitations affect the accuracy of modelling the total impact of an FTA on the economy. Many of the benefits to Australia from participation in the RCEP are also difficult to quantify. These include benefits like: deeper economic engagement, enhanced trade rules as a culture in the Indo-Pacific, strengthening Australia's trade relationship with our ASEAN partners, and contributing to an open, inclusive and resilient Indo-Pacific—which I'm sure you would agree, Senator Patrick, aligns with Australia's strategic interests. It would be difficult for economic analysis to quantify the benefits to the Australian economy specifically from RCEP, given the overlap that exists between RCEP and Australia's other multilateral and bilateral free trade agreements.

It's difficult to precisely model the impact of changes to non-tariff barriers, trade facilitation measures, increased regulatory certainty and rules of origin. Statistics on international trading services and investment flows are also incomplete, which can also affect the utility of modelling. Furthermore, outcomes in important areas such as services and trade facilitating rules don't lend themselves to economic modelling. We expect most of the impact of RCEP to be in areas such as market access for service providers and investors, improvements in governance and business environment in some of the developing countries in the RCEP, or improved access to regional value chains that result from RCEP's rules of origin.

However, there is significant evidence that reducing barriers to Australian exports is going to be beneficial for Australia. The national interest analysis for RCEP, which was tabled in parliament with the treaty text on 18 March 2021, supports the government's view that ratifying RCEP would be in the national interest.