Maria Vamvakinou (Calwell, Australian Labor Party) Share this | Hansard source

On behalf of the Standing Committee on Industry, Science and Innovation, I present the committee’s report entitled Seasonal forecasting in Australia, together with the minutes of proceedings.

Ordered that the report be made a parliamentary paper.

I am pleased to present this report entitled Seasonal forecasting in Australia on behalf of the Standing Committee on Industry, Science and Innovation. Many of Australia’s economically important industries such as tourism and agriculture are crucially dependent on long-term meteorological forecasting, otherwise known as seasonal forecasting. This presents significant challenges as Australia is a vast continent with a diverse range of climatic conditions. The committee’s inquiry examined a number of these challenges and found that Australia needs to invest in resources and people to increase the reliability of seasonal forecasting for the benefit of individuals, businesses and emergency services.

Not only is seasonal forecasting essential for our agricultural industries but also for tourism and water management, the planning of large infrastructure projects and emergency services. In weather sensitive industries information on long-term weather forecasting influences a wide range of management decisions. For example, grain producers need to know about seasonal rainfall, energy authorities must plan for extra energy loads during the heat waves, and the construction industry needs to factor in wet weather downtime. Emergency services rely on seasonal forecasting to plan for bushfires, floods and cyclones.

The committee is concerned that Australia once led the world in research and development in climate and weather forecasting but has fallen behind in the last couple of decades. One of the major causes for the decline is the decrease in supercomputing capability. Australia’s supercomputing capacity has not kept up with comparable countries. The committee notes that new supercomputers have just been provided to the Bureau of Meteorology and the Australian National University, but these will not make up for the shortfall.

Another concern is the reduction to the bureau’s staffing levels, impeding its effectiveness and jeopardising long-term sustainability. Recruitment needs to be increased, employment conditions reviewed, career pathways encouraged and secure tenure provided to attract and retain more high-calibre personnel.

Another contributing factor to the falling standards of weather forecasting is the quantity and quality of data coming from the network of weather stations across the country. Forecasting depends on accurate, long-term observational data. The integrity of current data is being threatened by a number of factors. Many existing weather stations are suffering the effects of age. Resource cuts have led a decrease in qualified observational staff and there are significant gaps between weather stations across the continent. The committee recognises that more weather stations are required to improve the amount and integrity of the data being collected.

The committee understands that seasonal forecasts are only useful if the data is translated into meaningful information for end-users. A number of state governments are taking the lead in this regard, matching data to stakeholder requirements and producing a range of products that enable end-users to gain maximum benefit from long-term weather forecasts.

Despite the difficulties identified by the inquiry, Australia is doing some impressive work in the research field not only by the Bureau of Meteorology and the CSIRO but also by state government agencies and universities. However, a nationally coordinated research agenda is required to capitalise on this research. The committee recommends the establishment of an institute of meteorological science to facilitate an ongoing partnership between relevant research bodies. This will go some way to helping Australia make up lost ground and regain its place as a leader in long-term meteorological forecasting.

In conclusion, I would like to thank all those who contributed to this inquiry through submissions and discussions with the committee. I would also like to thank committee members and secretariat staff for their efforts throughout the inquiry process. I commend the report to the House.

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