Maria Vamvakinou (Calwell, Australian Labor Party) Share this | Link to this | Hansard source

On behalf of the Standing Committee on Industry, Science and Innovation, I present the committee’s report entitled Seasonal forecasting in Australia, together with the minutes of proceedings.

Ordered that the report be made a parliamentary paper.

I am pleased to present this report entitled Seasonal forecasting in Australia on behalf of the Standing Committee on Industry, Science and Innovation. Many of Australia’s economically important industries such as tourism and agriculture are crucially dependent on long-term meteorological forecasting, otherwise known as seasonal forecasting. This presents significant challenges as Australia is a vast continent with a diverse range of climatic conditions. The committee’s inquiry examined a number of these challenges and found that Australia needs to invest in resources and people to increase the reliability of seasonal forecasting for the benefit of individuals, businesses and emergency services.

Not only is seasonal forecasting essential for our agricultural industries but also for tourism and water management, the planning of large infrastructure projects and emergency services. In weather sensitive industries information on long-term weather forecasting influences a wide range of management decisions. For example, grain producers need to know about seasonal rainfall, energy authorities must plan for extra energy loads during the heat waves, and the construction industry needs to factor in wet weather downtime. Emergency services rely on seasonal forecasting to plan for bushfires, floods and cyclones.

The committee is concerned that Australia once led the world in research and development in climate and weather forecasting but has fallen behind in the last couple of decades. One of the major causes for the decline is the decrease in supercomputing capability. Australia’s supercomputing capacity has not kept up with comparable countries. The committee notes that new supercomputers have just been provided to the Bureau of Meteorology and the Australian National University, but these will not make up for the shortfall.

Another concern is the reduction to the bureau’s staffing levels, impeding its effectiveness and jeopardising long-term sustainability. Recruitment needs to be increased, employment conditions reviewed, career pathways encouraged and secure tenure provided to attract and retain more high-calibre personnel.

Another contributing factor to the falling standards of weather forecasting is the quantity and quality of data coming from the network of weather stations across the country. Forecasting depends on accurate, long-term observational data. The integrity of current data is being threatened by a number of factors. Many existing weather stations are suffering the effects of age. Resource cuts have led a decrease in qualified observational staff and there are significant gaps between weather stations across the continent. The committee recognises that more weather stations are required to improve the amount and integrity of the data being collected.

The committee understands that seasonal forecasts are only useful if the data is translated into meaningful information for end-users. A number of state governments are taking the lead in this regard, matching data to stakeholder requirements and producing a range of products that enable end-users to gain maximum benefit from long-term weather forecasts.

Despite the difficulties identified by the inquiry, Australia is doing some impressive work in the research field not only by the Bureau of Meteorology and the CSIRO but also by state government agencies and universities. However, a nationally coordinated research agenda is required to capitalise on this research. The committee recommends the establishment of an institute of meteorological science to facilitate an ongoing partnership between relevant research bodies. This will go some way to helping Australia make up lost ground and regain its place as a leader in long-term meteorological forecasting.

In conclusion, I would like to thank all those who contributed to this inquiry through submissions and discussions with the committee. I would also like to thank committee members and secretariat staff for their efforts throughout the inquiry process. I commend the report to the House.

Fran Bailey (McEwen, Liberal Party) Share this | Link to this | Hansard source

The terms of reference for this report required the committee to examine the efficiency, innovation, impact and benefits of long-term meteorological forecasting in Australia and to assess how innovation in overseas research could benefit Australia. This is a comprehensive report and it is my pleasure to be able tonight to speak, albeit briefly, to this report and endorse the eight strong recommendations made unanimously by the committee. It is a very comprehensive report and it is dealing with the economic, environmental and social wellbeing benefits of weather forecasting from both short-term and long-range forecasting.

In Australia it is the Bureau of Meteorology that has the responsibility for the collection of meteorological data, the forecasting of weather and the state of the atmosphere, including the issuing of warnings for severe events that could endanger life and property. It is therefore of utmost importance that Australia has the very best equipment and personnel and research available to it because, as the chair has just previously indicated, of the range of industries that are so dependent on the accuracy of weather forecasting.

Until recent times weather forecasting has used what has been known as ‘statistical’ methods. This is being able to forecast based on historical data. As the Bureau of Meteorology said to us in the hearings:

A key assumption of statistical forecasting is that past weather and climate patterns are sound indicators of what we can expect in future.

But a major change has occurred in weather forecasting, which is now called ‘dynamic weather forecasting’, and this has come about with the introduction of the supercomputer. I would just like to refer very briefly to the report where it tells us that a key assumption of the statistical forecasting is that past weather and climate patterns are sound indicators of what can be expected in the future. However climate change challenges this assumption because it suggests that in the future the conditions that affect weather and climate increasingly will exceed the bounds of past experience, hence of course the importance of the supercomputer.

I would like the House to note that in July, earlier this year, I spent some time at the World Meteorological Organisation looking at their next generation of the supercomputer, which is known as the super-supercomputer. I draw the House’s attention in particular to recommendation 4 in this report because this is a very strong recommendation to the government to make sure our meteorological organisations are sufficiently funded to enable them to have this very latest equipment. It is absolutely vital that our weather scientists, who have exceptional international reputations, be given access to the equipment and the research that they so importantly need. In 1922, Lewis Fry Richardson said:

Perhaps some day in the dim future it will be possible to advance the computations faster than the weather advances and at a cost less than the saving to mankind due to the information gained.

In 1922 Mr Richardson, who was a mathematician, physicist and meteorologist, thought that was a dream. However, in 2009 we do have supercomputer technology in Australia. But, as this report points out, we really need the government to take note of this report and adequately fund our meteorological sciences so that they too can have access to the super-supercomputer. In closing, I thank the chair and the secretariat for all of their dedicated work in producing what I think is a very fine report.

Harry Jenkins (Speaker) Share this | Link to this | Hansard source

Does the member for Calwell wish to move a motion in connection with the report to enable it to be debated on a later occasion?

I move:

That the House take note of the report.

In accordance with standing order 39, the debate is adjourned. The resumption of the debate will be made an order of the day for the next sitting.