Ms Julie Bishop (Curtin, Liberal Party, Deputy Leader of the Opposition) Share this | Hansard source

Historically, the Middle East has been of significance to Australia’s national interests. Since the late 19th century, when New South Wales sent a contingent to Sudan, that part of the world has been strategically important to Australia. That remains the case. Events in the Middle East and North Africa continue to unfold rapidly, and no-one can predict the outcome.

The past week has seen the United Nations Security Council endorse the imposition of a no-fly zone over Libya, which is currently beset by what some describe as a civil war, with forces loyal to Colonel Gaddafi in the west and opposition to Colonel Gaddafi centred in the east. The complexity of the situation within Libya has led to concerns about how the country will eventually recover from this crisis and what type of government will emerge if we assume that Colonel Gaddafi, the brutal dictator, relinquishes or is removed from power. That itself is uncertain. There are disturbing reports from within Libya that Colonel Gaddafi continues to direct forces against the civilian population of Libya, further revealing his true character and the utterly illegitimate nature of his rule.

The mission to establish a no-fly zone has been led by the United States, with the support of several other nations, including France and the United Kingdom. President Obama has made it clear that he expects NATO to take overall command of the military action as quickly as possible; however, there are concerning reports of differing views within NATO that have delayed that process. It is in the interests of maintaining the integrity of the United Nations Security Council resolution and the broader interests of the region and the world for the NATO allies to resolve any differences.

Having fought hard to establish a no-fly zone over Libya, the international community is facing the danger of becoming bogged down over the question of what comes next. I note the comments of Senator Richard Lugar, a key member of the United States Senate Foreign Relations Committee. He has criticised the Obama administration for embarking on an open-ended military campaign with no end game in sight.

Should Colonel Gaddafi refuse to cede power, which is increasingly likely, nations imposing the no-fly zone and those who advocated its imposition will face a difficult dilemma. Whilst he remains in control of military forces, Colonel Gaddafi is unlikely to accept short of complete control over the entire country and the rebels are also unlikely to accept any situation that allows Colonel Gaddafi to regroup. The deep fear is that Libya is heading for protracted civil war from which the international community will struggle to extricate itself.

According to STRATFOR Global Intelligence, Colonel Gaddafi’s forces are likely to retain considerable strength even without the armour or artillery destroyed by the air strikes. The westward advance of rebel forces will be slowed by Gaddafi’s army, which is likely to dig in around Libya’s urban centres. There has been little sign to date that the rebels have been able to form into an organised military force.

President Obama has said that Gaddafi must go. The United Kingdom Defence Secretary, Liam Fox, has said that Gaddafi himself was a legitimate target. It is clear from these statements that regime change is a tacit goal of the United States and the United Kingdom at least, although not expressly articulated in the United Nations Security Council resolution.

Without a clear sense of direction, the international community may find itself drifting towards the undesirable outcome where it has to consider supporting an autonomous region in East Libya. This would require not only an ongoing no-fly zone over Libya but considerable economic and military aid packages to a fledgling government. France has already taken a step down this path, recognising the Transitional National Council as the legitimate government of Libya. There are also concerns over the composition of the opposition.

Military intervention to protect civilians in Libya is also a matter of taking sides. According to STRATFOR, the international community is ‘supporting a diverse and sometimes mutually hostile group of tribes and individuals bound together by hostility to Gaddafi and not much else’.

Having gone into Libya, the international community must now decide in what circumstances and under what conditions it will get out. What is the exit strategy? The Arab League, having called for the intervention and with its support for the resolution being integral to its endorsement, must take a leading role in determining the outcome. The key challenges are faced by not only the nations imposing the no-fly zone but also those who strongly urged such action, including the Australian government and most particularly Foreign Minister Rudd.

While military action in Libya has dominated news coverage, another crisis has been rapidly developing in Yemen. Protests have been under way in that country since late January, with tens of thousands of people taking to the streets of the capital San’a and other cities. There had been ongoing violence between security forces and protesters; however, the situation escalated rapidly after more than 50 people were killed last weekend. This led to defections and resignations from within the regime of President Ali Abdullah Saleh, greatly increasing the potential for the nation to descend into civil war. There were reports of a tense stand-off between military units on the streets of the capital.

After weeks of refusing to countenance any transition from power, the President is now reported to have agreed to stand aside peacefully and has accepted a plan for that process that includes the formation of a national unity government, constitutional reform, electoral reform and presidential elections this year. It remains to be seen whether the majority of protesters will accept this agreement and whether they will leave the streets and allow the country to regain some semblance of normality.

Meanwhile, it is reported that Saudi Arabia’s government has urged President Saleh to leave, and the kingdom is helping to manage the transition, including the hosting of a conference for Yemeni tribal leaders, political party representatives and government officials. Against the backdrop of these negotiations there are reports of ongoing violence elsewhere in the country, with two protesters killed and nine injured in clashes in the southern province of Taiz.

Equally concerning are the reports that the Yemeni Houthi rebels, who have been in armed conflict with the government for years, have taken advantage of the disruption to take control of the northern province. At least 20 people have been reported killed in the fighting. The Shiah Houthi fighters are reported to have shot down a government MiG fighter jet during the conflict. Saudi Arabian security and military forces have also clashed repeatedly with Houthi forces over several years, and the Saudis have undertaken extensive military action against them along the Saudi-Yemeni border. This has included the bombing of Houthi strongholds in Yemen.

The situation within Yemen is volatile and unpredictable, and we continue to urge that calm heads prevail and a peaceful transition be achieved. It is not in the interests of the people of either Yemen or the rest of the world for the country to descend into chaos. That would only play into the hands of extremists. We must not forget that 23 former members of al-Qaeda escaped in 2006 from a Yemeni prison and founded al-Qaeda in Yemen, which later evolved into al-Qaeda in the Arabian peninsula. This group was behind the attempted bombing of a passenger jet over the United States on Christmas Day 2009. Al-Qaeda in the Arabian peninsula is regarded as one of the most dangerous and active al-Qaeda affiliates, and we must not doubt its ability to use the upheaval in Yemen to its own nefarious advantage.

The situation in the tiny kingdom of Bahrain remains tense in the wake of the decision of the government to demolish the Pearl Monument, around which protesters had gathered for weeks. While the crackdown that accompanied the demolition of the monument managed to clear the protesters, it appears that the situation is only temporary. There are reports that activists are planning for a day of protest tomorrow targeting at least nine locations, including the airport and the hospital. The kingdom is particularly volatile due to tensions between the 70 per cent Shiah population and the 30 per cent Sunni population who make up the ruling class and the royal family. A major concern is that the upheaval is being encouraged or worse by Iran and that Bahrain has become a proxy battle ground for influence between Saudi Arabia and Iran.

European Union foreign policy officials have warned of a downward economic spiral and an escalation in the proxy conflict between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Bahrain may be a small island kingdom, but its strategic importance is significant as the host of the United States 5th Fleet. Forces from Saudi Arabia are currently in Bahrain, ostensibly to protect key infrastructure, while Kuwait has deployed naval vessels to the kingdom for what has been described by Kuwaiti officials as ‘part of the peninsula shield forces defending Bahrain’. Given that there are now no external forces threatening Bahrain, this would indicate a desire to defend Bahrain from internal forces. The great fear is that, if the Shiah are successful in toppling the Sunni government in Bahrain, it would greatly enhance Iranian influence in the region and embolden Shiah minorities within the other countries of the region, most notably Saudi Arabia.

Disconcertingly for the West, the Shiah minorities of Saudi Arabia tend to live in the regions which hold the bulk of the nation’s enormous oil reserves. Unrest in those regions would send shock waves through the world economy. There have already been reports of small protests in Saudi Arabia with calls for the release of Shiah clerics and other prisoners. The world is watching developments in Saudi Arabia with great trepidation, revealing the sensitivities surrounding events in Bahrain. Nonetheless, we urge the Bahraini king to forsake armed crackdowns on his own people and to undertake negotiations in good faith to advance the cause of democracy and human rights in his tiny kingdom.

Unrest continues to ferment in other nations of the region. There are disturbing reports of deadly violence having been used against protests in nations such as Syria. There have been reports overnight of Syrian security forces shooting and killing four people near a mosque during a funeral for people who were killed while staging recent antigovernment protests. We continue to urge governments to show restraint and allow people to protest peacefully. The situation in Jordan also remains fluid after widespread protests led to the king sacking the government and replacing the Prime Minister on 2 February. Opposition groups are reportedly growing impatient at the slow pace of reform since that time. King Abdullah II has ordered the new government to act quickly in enacting political and economic reforms and is clearly worried about the potential fallout should the protesters lose faith in the process.

Egypt has taken significant steps as it emerges from under the fist of the Mubarak regime. Almost 80 per cent of Egyptians who voted in a recent referendum supported a range of constitutional changes, including limits on presidential terms. This is a huge step forward for a nation struggling to build new democratic institutions and to unify the nation after the dramatic events that ultimately led to President Mubarak resigning and then fleeing Cairo. Egypt is regarded as hugely influential in the region given its population and strategic importance, including the global economic significance of the Suez Canal. It is also one of the few nations of the region that has a formal peace treaty with Israel.

After Tunisia, where protests first erupted, Egypt was the first major nation to experience widespread protests and the first where those protests toppled the President. With Egypt taking what appear to be constructive and peaceful steps towards political reform, we must remain hopeful that other nations will be inspired by its example. It is too early to judge what will emerge as Egypt’s ruling structure following elections, and concerns linger about the Muslim Brotherhood, which is steadily taking a more prominent role. However, there is hope that the universal human desire for greater freedom which motivated the original protests will triumph in Egypt and in other nations.

I join with the foreign minister in commending the Australian consular staff for their professionalism and their calm approach to dangerous and devastating situations that have arisen in North Africa and the Middle East. People talk optimistically of an ‘Arab spring’, but the situation country-by-country is fraught with danger for the whole international community. It cannot be assumed that many of the participants in these protests and conflicts have the same respect for democracy, freedom, the rule of law and human rights that we so value.

Debate interrupted.

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