Nick Minchin (SA, Liberal Party, Minister for Finance and Administration) Share this | Hansard source

I think the opposition and the government share an equal concern for civilian casualties in Iraq, and any civilian casualty in Iraq is a matter for remorse and regret. It is a fact that the coalition forces in Iraq are seeking to minimise, to the greatest degree possible, obviously, civilian casualties and I think it is accepted, on both sides of this chamber at least, that indeed the extent of civilian casualties is a function of the terrorist insurgent and sectarian activity in that country.

As to the estimates of civilian casualties, as I understand it, John Hopkins University is the source of this report of 655,000 casualties, which, as I am advised, is one casualty for every 40 Iraqis. I think that is reasonably widely regarded as simply not credible. The methodology and the results of that survey have come under serious question. A BBC report on this matter does make it clear that there is considerable debate among the scientific community about the accuracy of those figures. The accuracy of the figures has been questioned by Iraqi officials. They are at odds with those compiled by other groups which monitor civilian casualties.

A range of government agencies stated in Senate estimates, back in October-November, that they were of the view and their advice was—and I am sure Senator Faulkner is aware of this—that those figures were simply not credible. There are other estimates of civilian casualties, and they do vary widely. There is a UK website, Iraqi Body Count, which estimates as of yesterday that between 59,801 and 65,660 civilians have been killed since March 2003. The Brookings institute estimates as of October 2006—albeit that is a few months ago now—that about 70,000 civilians have been killed since March 2003. I respect Senator Faulkner’s concern for this matter; we share it. But the government does not accept as reliable the 655,000 figure. It is not easy to determine the exact figures but there are other sources that I think are equally as reliable which have much lower casualty figures than that.