John Faulkner (NSW, Australian Labor Party) Share this | Link to this | Hansard source

My question is directed to Senator Minchin, the Minister representing the Prime Minister. I refer the minister to the 2006 survey which was published in the Lancet and which concluded that over 650,000 Iraqis have died, mostly from violence, since March 2003. Is the minister aware that documents assessing the survey have been released under the United Kingdom’s FOI system? Is the minister also aware that those documents indicate the British government was advised by the UK Ministry of Defence’s chief scientific adviser against publicly criticising the survey because the survey’s methods were considered ‘close to best practice’ and ‘robust’? On what basis did the Prime Minister, in October last year, criticise the survey as ‘out of whack’ and ‘not plausible’?

Nick Minchin (SA, Liberal Party, Minister for Finance and Administration) Share this | Link to this | Hansard source

I think the opposition and the government share an equal concern for civilian casualties in Iraq, and any civilian casualty in Iraq is a matter for remorse and regret. It is a fact that the coalition forces in Iraq are seeking to minimise, to the greatest degree possible, obviously, civilian casualties and I think it is accepted, on both sides of this chamber at least, that indeed the extent of civilian casualties is a function of the terrorist insurgent and sectarian activity in that country.

As to the estimates of civilian casualties, as I understand it, John Hopkins University is the source of this report of 655,000 casualties, which, as I am advised, is one casualty for every 40 Iraqis. I think that is reasonably widely regarded as simply not credible. The methodology and the results of that survey have come under serious question. A BBC report on this matter does make it clear that there is considerable debate among the scientific community about the accuracy of those figures. The accuracy of the figures has been questioned by Iraqi officials. They are at odds with those compiled by other groups which monitor civilian casualties.

A range of government agencies stated in Senate estimates, back in October-November, that they were of the view and their advice was—and I am sure Senator Faulkner is aware of this—that those figures were simply not credible. There are other estimates of civilian casualties, and they do vary widely. There is a UK website, Iraqi Body Count, which estimates as of yesterday that between 59,801 and 65,660 civilians have been killed since March 2003. The Brookings institute estimates as of October 2006—albeit that is a few months ago now—that about 70,000 civilians have been killed since March 2003. I respect Senator Faulkner’s concern for this matter; we share it. But the government does not accept as reliable the 655,000 figure. It is not easy to determine the exact figures but there are other sources that I think are equally as reliable which have much lower casualty figures than that.

John Faulkner (NSW, Australian Labor Party) Share this | Link to this | Hansard source

Mr President, I ask a supplementary question. Yes, I am aware of the evidence that was given at Senate estimates committee because it was in answer to questions that I asked. But I would ask the minister if he can confirm that at no stage has the Australian government or the Australian intelligence community either sought or produced any assessment of Iraqi civilian casualties. I ask if the minister can inform the Senate, and explain to the Senate, why the Prime Minister has not instructed the Office of National Assessments, the Defence Intelligence Organisation or any other agency to monitor and assess Iraqi civilian casualties or, for that matter, even seek information from our allies in relation to this absolutely crucial matter.

Nick Minchin (SA, Liberal Party, Minister for Finance and Administration) Share this | Link to this | Hansard source

As I say, we share Senator Faulkner’s view that this is a crucial matter. The whole purpose of our engagement in Iraq is to provide peace, security and long-term democratic government to the people of Iraq; that is why we are there. I am not in a position to confirm that at no stage has that information been sought. I am happy to seek to determine whether or not that is the case, in response to Senator Faulkner’s question. It also begged the leading question about why the PM has not sought to instruct agencies. I am not in a position to say one way or the other on that matter, but I am happy to seek what information I can on what information has been sought by the PM from relevant agencies.